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Wireless Thoughts Around the World
By David J. Hrivnak, Principal Emerging Technology Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company
Recently I embarked on a global wireless fact-finding trip to Hong Kong, Singapore, the
Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and Sweden to find out just how well wireless technologies are
working throughout the world. In the end I came to a surprising, yet pleasing conclusion:
Wireless works - and it is working well.
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During my travels, I used and observed two different mobile communications modes, a
GSM phone (Global Standard for Mobile communications) for voice and data communications,
and SMS (Short Messaging System) for text, what I consider a poor man's BlackBerry.
The GSM phone worked without a hitch in every country I visited regardless of location
- subway, train, high-rise, park or city street. And unlike the typical experience of using a
mobile phone in the US, I never had a dropped call. However, on the data side it was difficult to
get WAP (Wireless Access Protocol) or data services to work, except for a very short time in
Singapore.
Surprisingly, in each country I visited more people seemed to be reading or typing
messages instead of using mobile phones to talk. Based on my observations and experience,
people appear to be most interested in mobile e-mail. This I believe, is the “killer” app many
people are seeking. SMS messaging is rapidly growing, with 36 billion messages sent
worldwide last December according to recent studies.
Today, users are looking for an easy way to enter messages, but since SMS limits the
number of characters to about 120 it is obviously not a long-term solution in this technology
driven era. This means that once a better option becomes available, people will probably opt for
the easier and faster option. Unfortunately, both I-mode and Blackberry require a packet data
network, which will require the world to upgrade to GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) from
GSM first.
GPRS
According to several telecommunications companies, the move from the GSM cellular
standard to the next generation GPRS is behind schedule globally. One possible factor for the
slowdown is the combination of the dot-com crash and high costs paid for 3G spectrum, leaving
few companies with the money to invest in GPRS.
In addition, a substantial investment is required to enable GPRS, requiring the change of
equipment in most tower and switch rooms. Another key factor is that few GPRS handsets are
currently available and those that are have been recalled because of numerous problems.
So while it is promised this year, I predict it will be late 2002 before there is significant
market penetration, as most telecommunications companies will try to recoup their investments
first. This is unfortunate because a packet data network (GPRS-the next generation of GSM,
CDMA-Sprint and Verizon in the US, or iDEN-Nextel) is required for always on or BlackBerry-
like functionality.
US vs. the World
Currently, cell phone penetration in Asia Pacific and Europe more than doubles that in
the US, primarily because of an inconsistent infrastructure. This lack of interoperability between
wireless systems hampers growth in the US. For example, in a recent 400-mile trip from
Tennessee to Pittsburgh, I took phones from three major US carriers. Digital coverage was
available for less that 25 percent of the trip, significantly different than my experience in other
countries. If US telecommunications companies can agree on interoperability standards, the US
could very well leapfrog Japan and its I-mode success.
Although the US is lagging behind in infrastructure, I believe it currently leads in
wireless innovation. There are some in Korea and Sweden who argue that they are world leaders
in wireless innovation. However, currently both Korea and Sweden seem to have a very regional
focus that limits their innovation. Based on my observations to date, it is evident that the US and
Canada lead other countries in wireless innovation.
If the US telecommunications companies hold to their aggressive digital wireless build
out and remain on schedule to increase data rates, the US could leap ahead in the wireless data
sector. Both Sprint and Verizon have aggressive plans to move ahead quickly to the next
generation of CDMA - which does not require significant tower upgrades. We will see if they
meet their targets.
The entire contents of this article are owned and copyright (c)20001, Eastman Chemicals. Any redistribution or
retransmission in whole or in part without contacting WDN and the author is strictly prohibited.
Comments
Just some comments on the article Where Wireless Works:
1. The Blackberry service uses a packet switched technology called Mobitex that was
created by Ericsson for use by the Swedish emergency medical system. It is the same
network that is used for the Palm VII - SMS is a much newer technology. This comment
addresses both the "poor man's Blackberry" comment and the comment that the US is ahead
of Sweden in wireless innovation.
2. The limit of SMS is 160 characters, but a number of phones now allow for
concatenated SMS, for longer messages
3. i-Mode uses packet switched PDC - a network only available in Japan.
4. GPRS is mainly a software upgrade to GSM networks - there is very little new
equipment required for "tower[s] and switch rooms"
5. The R520 and T39 from Ericsson are both GPRS phones and are available worldwide.
6. CDMA is not a packet-switched network, it is code-switched. The next generation of
CDMA technology, however will support packet-switching
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