Mobile Wireless Communications Tomorrow (cont.)

by Puneet Gupta

Destination: Third Generation

Standardization of 3G mobile systems is based on ITU (International Telecom Union) recommendations for IMT 2000. IMT 2000 specifies a set of requirements that must be achieved 100% for a network to be called 3G. By providing multimedia capacities and higher data rates, these systems will enhance the range and quality of services provided by 2G systems. The main contenders for 3G systems are wideband CDMA (W-CDMA) and cdma2000. The ETSI/ GSM players including infrastructure vendors such as Nokia and Ericsson backed W-CDMA. cdma2000 was backed by the North American CDMA community, led by the CDMA Development Group (CDG) including infrastructure vendors such as Qualcomm and Lucent Technologies. Universal Mobile Telephone System (UMTS) is the widely used European name for 3G.

The proposed IMT-2000 standard for third generation mobile networks globally is a CDMA-based standard that encompasses THREE OPTIONAL modes of operation, each of which should be able to work over both GSM MAP and IS-41 network architectures. The three modes are shown in the following table.

UMTS is the European designation for 3G systems. The UMTS frequency bands selected by the ITU are 1,885 MHz - 2,025 MHz (Tx) and 2,110 MHz - 2,2,20 MHz (Rx). Higher frequency bands could be added in future if need be, for stationary data. There is still some confusion about all the frequency options as FCC has not given clear indications so far. The following table should briefly give an idea about the 3G system specifications.

3rd Generation Initiatives

3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project) and 3GPP2 are the two alliances working towards the specification for the 3G systems. 3GPP partners are ETSI, TTC, ARIB, TTA, T1 and the 3GPP2 includes TIA, TTC, ARIB, TTA. Although both have chosen CDMA as the technology behind the 3G systems, the systems advocated by these two groups are different. The 3GPP organizational partners have agreed to co-operate for the production of Technical Specifications for a 3rd Generation Mobile System based on the evolved GSM core networks and the radio access technologies that the Organizational Partners support (i.e. UTRA both FDD and TDD modes). 3GPP2 provides global specifications for ANSI/TIA/EIA-41 network evolution to 3G and global specifications for the RTTs (Radio transmission technologies) supported by ANSI/TIA/EIA-41. Yet another group, the Operators Harmonization Group, is dedicated to achieving the maximum possible level of commonality of technologies to maximize interworking of different versions. It was as a result of pushing by OHG that led to ITU's mixed solution to 3G air interfaces with ANSI-41 and GSM MAP networking.

The 3G Market

Wireless internet access is high on the priority lists of major wireless carriers. NTT DoCoMo's iMode service in Japan, launched just two years ago, is expected to double the number of subscribers to 10 million by the end of 2000. It is important to understand that wireline data technologies are advancing very fast and will support very high data rates at very low costs that would be prohibitive with foreseeable wireless technology. 3G aim is high data rates, but the focus is mobility!

According to a market report 3G Wireless: Market Expectations, by the Philips Group, we should see 3G wireless subscribers growing from 1.7 million in 2002 to around 38 million in 2007. Whereas consumers account for 80% of the overall wireless market, they are expected to be only 20% of the 3G wireless market. Similarly, business-vertical subscribers, estimated to be about 6 percent of the overall wireless market, are assumed to be 42 percent of the 3G market initially, and business-horizontal, 38 percent. The penetration of 3G subscribers relative to total wireless subscribers is expected to grow from 1.3 percent in 2002 to 23 percent in 2007. Consumer penetration, even by the end of the period, is assumed to have grown to only 9 percent, while business-vertical has reached 91 percent, and business-horizontal, 68 percent. Wireless operator revenue opportunity should also grow from $4.3 billion to $63 billion in the same time. Infrastructure opportunities should also grow from $4 billion to $34 billion.

3G Timeframes

The actual deployment of 3G will not be a homogeneous occurrence. Japan will lead with the service in early 2001, followed by Western Europe in mid to late 2003. U.S. is expected to wait for some time at 2.5G and 2.75G before going in to true 3G. As I have mentioned earlier, with TDMA based networks like GSM and IS-136, increased capacity will be the initial driving factors. Therefore these networks will take a comparatively longer time to true 3G.

Next: Evolving Today's Networks Towards 3G