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Continued Wireless Growth Forecasted To Displace Over 23 Million Access Lines Through 2006
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., Oct 30, 2002 - Highly competitive calling plans and the convenience of mobile phones are
prompting more and more consumers to replace their wireline telephone access with wireless access. IDC expects more than 23 million wireline
access lines will have been displaced by wireless in the 12 years from 1995 to 2006, with 13 million lines displaced from 2002 to 2006. However, most
of this growth will come from the displacement of secondary and additional lines while the number of users whose primary means of access is
wireless will remain a small percentage of the total consumer market.
"As wireless carriers add incentives like 'free' minutes and long distance to their calling plans, they are becoming increasingly competitive with the
price of landline services," said Scott Ellison, program director of IDC's Wireless and Mobile Communications service. "As a result, consumers have
a viable alternative to adding a second wireline for their children or home office. This presents a significant market opportunity for wireless providers
as consumers weigh their access options."
The youth and young adult market continues to represent the largest potential market for primary wireline displacement, as they already displace
secondary lines at a disproportionately higher level than other demographic groups. IDC believes that most adult users who are amenable to going
completely wireless have already done so and that the bulk of new wireless-only users will be young adults.
Inconsistent wireless service quality, inconsistent in-building coverage, and ingrained cultural behavior are substantial market inhibitors to large- scale
wireless displacement of primary wireline access, generally outweighing the market drivers of convenience and pricing. Home access to the Internet
presents another potential inhibitor, with less than a quarter of wireless users reporting home access to the Internet through a cable, DSL or satellite
connection.
IDC's recently released Wireless Displacement of Wireline Access Lines Forecast and Analysis, 2002-2006 (IDC #28018) analyzes the wireless
displacement of wired access lines, including a discussion of the market drivers and inhibitors. To purchase this document, call IDC's volume sales
hotline at 508-988-7988 or email sales@idc.com.
About IDC
IDC is the foremost global market intelligence and advisory firm helping clients gain insight into technology and ebusiness trends to develop sound
business strategies. Using a combination of rigorous primary research, in- depth analysis, and client interaction, IDC forecasts worldwide markets and
trends to deliver dependable service and client advice. More than 700 analysts in 43 countries provide global research with local content. IDC's
customers comprise the world's leading IT suppliers, IT organizations, ebusiness companies, and the financial community. Additional information can
be found at www.idc.com.
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