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3G Coming, Ready or Not
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., December 16, 2002 - While the UMTS (W-CDMA)
landscape is changing daily, due to deployment delays and
handset issues, the transformation of many cdmaOne networks to
CDMA2000 1x is proceeding at a rapid pace, according to In-
Stat/MDR (http://www.instat.com). "The evolution of a cdmaOne
network to CDMA 1x is relatively simple since very few new
elements are required," says Ray Jodoin, a Director with the
high-tech market research firm. "The primary hardware addition
is the PDSN, which is the CDMA 2000 equivalent to the UMTS
GGSN. Existing BTSs, BSCs, and MSCs require modification rather
than replacement."
In-Stat/MDR has also found that:
- No European carriers have committed to EDGE as an upgrade
path, but Nokia has announced that they will support any
deployment with a GSM/EDGE handset. This, however, should
not surprise anyone, since all base stations shipped for
more than one year are GSM/GPRS/EDGE capable. However,
the situation in the Americas, where no spectrum in the
2GHz band has been allocated, is different. AT&T
Wireless, Cingular, and T-Mobile have announced plans to
implement GSM/GPRS/EDGE upgrades within the existing
cellular frequencies, using Compact EDGE.
- While UMTS has borne the brunt of the recent gloom and
doom scenarios, it is actually being deployed, and
generating manufacturing revenue, at a reasonable rate.
It will continue to be deployed at an increasing rate as
handsets become available and coverage deadlines advance.
In Europe, the driving factor will not necessarily be a
"killer application," but quite probably will be the need
for more voice capacity to supplement the strained GSM
urban networks. While UMTS is often portrayed as
"expensive," the reality of the situation is that the
hardware cost-per-voice channel is less than one-half the
cost of GSM.
- There will be consolidation in the European UMTS arena.
In Germany, for example, with a penetration rate of more
than 65%, there is hardly room for six UMTS carriers in
addition to the four GSM incumbents. However, in spite of
the obvious need to consolidate, deployment will continue
at an accelerated rate next year, as the license holders
struggle to activate as large a revenue stream as
possible.
The report, "3G Infrastructure Deployment Update"
(#IN020334GW), covers the architecture and deployment of
CDMA2000, GSM/EDGE, and UMTS (W-CDMA). Current, trial, and
planned deployment for CDMA 1x and 1xEV-DO are tabulated and
UMTS deployment and projected revenue through the end of 2003
are forecast by carrier and by country. To purchase this
report, or for more information, please visit:
http://www.instat.com/catalog/cat-cw.htm or contact Erin
McKeighan; emckeighan@reedbusiness.com at 480.609.4551. The
report price is $3,495 USD.
About In-Stat/MDR
In-Stat/MDR (http://www.instat.com) offers a broad range of
information resources and analytical assets to technology
vendors, service providers, technology professionals, and
market specialists worldwide. The company stands alone in its
ability to integrate both supply-side and demand-side research
methodologies into a single comprehensive view of technology
markets and products. This capability relies on a unique
ability to cover the entire value chain from engineering-level
technology, through equipment, infrastructure, services and
end-users.
In-Stat/MDR is part of the Reed Electronics Group, a division
of Reed Elsevier (www.reedelsevier.com), a world-leading
publisher and information provider. With over 38,000 employees
worldwide, Reed Elsevier operates in the science & medical,
legal, education and business-to-business industry sectors,
providing high value and flexible information solutions to
professional end users, with increasing emphasis on the
Internet.
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