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WirelessDevNet.com Press Release
Symbian Dissected - a new report from ARCchart
ARCchart, the wireless telecoms research and consulting firm, today announces the launch of the most comprehensive study of Symbian the smartphone operating system, and Symbian the company. The new report, "Symbian Dissected", forecasts that the number of handsets shipped using the Symbian OS will rise from 10 million in 2003 to 106 million by 2008. However, Nokia will be responsible for the majority of these, both as a consequence of its own device sales, and also its user interface licensing program.
Symbian has found itself in the spotlight in recent months. Symbian Ltd. has made it no secret that an IPO is one option it is exploring, and it is tantalizing the analyst community with selected operational data every quarter. This, along with rival PalmSource's new status as an independently traded stock, has helped to focus the attention of the capital markets on the smartphone OS industry
ARCchart analyses the Symbian cost base, its four revenue streams and its future addressable market and consequent income. The report details an income projection for the business to 2008, forecasting it will reach profitability in 2005.
However, there are treacherous waters ahead. Symbian is caught in the middle of the complex politics resulting from the delicate collusion of its competing handset vendor shareholders. In August, as soon it was released from its tie-in clause, Motorola disposed of its 19 percent stake in the Symbian business, selling to Nokia and Psion. We analyse the rationale and politics behind Motorola's decision to exit prior to a potential IPO. This bodes ill for Symbian as it signals that Nokia's support for the platform is both a curse, as well as a blessing.
While Symbian management is at pains to stress that it remains independent of any one handset vendor despite its list of investors, there is no disguising Symbian's reliance on Nokia. Its support has delivered immediate market traction for the OS and ARCchart estimates that Nokia will be responsible for 71 percent of all Symbian license sales in 2003. According to Matt Lewis, Senior Analyst at ARCchart, "Without Nokia as a customer, profitability for Symbian is an enigma".
Nokia has become the main conduit for Symbian into the market place, and ARCchart analyses the impact of this "Nokia Effect" on the OS platform. A key feature of the Symbian OS is that it is not designed to be used out-of-the-box. Handset vendor licensees are intended to develop their own user interfaces (UIs). However, Nokia's decision to license out its Series 60 Symbian UI is providing handset vendors with a fast, effortless route into the smartphone market.
Adrian Drury, lead analyst on the report, said "Nokia's Series 60 is increasingly looking like the de facto implementation of Symbian for single-handed smartphones that make up the lion's share of the market, and Series 90 could give it control of the rest. Bottom line, this would turn Symbian into a closed, Nokia-controlled platform. It's not surprising Motorola wanted out."
In the report, ARCchart examines the economics and the industry consequences of an outright acquisition of Symbian by Nokia. Using PalmSource as a valuation proxy, the analysis indicates that the resulting license fee savings would enable Nokia to realise a return within just three years. Critically, however, ARCchart goes on to examine the negative impact on shipments of Symbian devices, and consequent growth of the Symbian ecosystem, if competitor handset vendors found themselves obliged to license both the UI and the core Symbian OS from Nokia.
Symbian is far from being the only smartphone operating system in the market today. ARCchart also examines its three main competitors; the Palm OS; Microsoft's Windows Mobile for Smartphone (WMS); and Linux as a basis for a proprietary smartphone OS, employing application engines such as Java or BREW. Specifically, ARCchart examines how Microsoft aims to gain market share by playing to the commoditisation trend and using ODM channels to circumvent the resistance of the established handset manufacturers.
To purchase this report, or for more information, please contact Lloyd Bevan, at + 44 207 826 9000; lloydb@arcchart.com . The report is priced at USD$995 for a single user and USD$2495 for a multi-user license.
Report title: Symbian Dissected
Publication date: November 2003
Number of pages: 95
Report price: USD$995 single-user; USD$2495 multi-user
Table of contents:
Purchase report online:
About ARCchart
ARCchart is an independent research and consulting firm focusing on all aspects of the wireless communications sector. Based in London, ARCchart's depth and breadth of analysis provides a global perspective on wireless technology and industry developments. Combining original thinking with exceptional knowledge and experience, ARCchart assists clients in making sound commercial decisions about technologies, market strategies and competitive positions. With strong roots in the tracking of M&A activity across the communications space, ARCchart's strategic advice covers all aspects of the wireless value chain - ranging from semiconductors and WLANs to network operators, handsets and mobile applications. ARCchart is an affiliate of London-based investment bank ARC Associates.
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