Gartner Dataquest Says Worldwide Mobile Phone Sales Exceed Expectations in Third Quarter of 2002

SAN JOSE, Calif., November 26, 2002 — In the third quarter of 2002, the mobile phone industry exceeded expectations with a 7.8 percent increase from the same period last year, according to Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB). Worldwide mobile phone sales totaled 104.3 million units in the third quarter of 2002.




"This is only the second time ever that the third quarter has realized mobile terminal sales volume in excess of 100 million units," said Bryan Prohm, senior analyst with the Mobile Communications Worldwide research group for Gartner Dataquest. "The most encouraging development was that each of the six principal geographic regions tracked by Gartner Dataquest recorded a sequential increase in demand."

"The positive momentum generated during the third quarter of 2002 seems well positioned to carry over into the fourth quarter of 2002, when a wave of innovative mobile terminal models are expected to become widely available."

Nokia further distanced itself from its competition in the third quarter, as its worldwide market share grew to 35.9 percent (see Table 1). Nokia was able to break through the 50 percent market share barrier in the Western European market, as well as the larger Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) regional market.

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Table 1 - Worldwide Mobile Terminal Sales to End-User Estimates for 3Q02 (Thousands of Units)





*Note: Ericsson sales only in 3Q01. Sony 3Q1 sales included in Others.
Note: This table does not include iDEN sales to end-users.
Source: Gartner Dataquest (November 2002)

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Motorola saw its global market share position decline during the third quarter, in large part because of critical delays in the availability of two new models — the T720 and C330 — which were expected to ship in volume in the early part of the quarter.

"Motorola looks increasingly exposed to uncertainty in China and the United States – as these two countries now account for more then 50 percent of Motorola’s quarterly sales to end-users," said Ann Liang, industry analyst with the Mobile Communications Worldwide research group for Gartner Dataquest in Asia/Pacific. "Motorola’s best opportunity to realize significant market share growth during the coming quarters lies in developing a stronger presence in the GSM markets of EMEA and Asia-Pacific, minus China."

Samsung had another strong quarter, as its market share surpassed 10 percent. Gartner Dataquest analysts said at Samsung's current pace, it could achieve greater than 11 percent market share in the fourth quarter and be above the 10 percent mark for the full year.

In mature markets, such as Western Europe, mobile phone manufacturers are facing more challenges in motivating users to purchase new phones.

"The highly penetrated nature of the Western European market means that future mobile terminals sales growth must now come from replacement purchases," said Ben Wood, senior analyst for Gartner Dataquest in Europe. "The combination of color, cameras and content will drive this replacement cycle in the next eighteen months. Mobile terminal manufacturers will need to continually innovate to avoid a Western European market characterized by cyclical demand in coming years."

"Mass-market acceptance of emerging handset features such as color screens and polyphonic sound may well prove to be merely short-term catalysts for replacement sales," Prohm said. "While double-digit growth is returned to the mobile terminal market, vendors will need to be increasingly flexible and even revolutionary in their approach to the market in order to secure the loyalties of an ever more fickle end-user, and carriers with shifting priorities."

This research is published by Gartner Dataquest's Mobile Communications Worldwide research group. This group examines the opportunities in mobile communications with detailed coverage of the entire value chain of mobile services and equipment that are enabling the creation of a new wirefree networked economy. To keep up to date on the latest telecommunications issues, please visit Gartner's Telecommunications Focus Area at www.gartner.com/telecom-mkt.

To subscribe to Gartner Dataquest programs, please call 408-468-8000. Reports can be purchase on the Internet at www.gartner.com.

Gartner Dataquest is the recognized leader in providing the high-technology and financial communities with market intelligence for the semiconductor, computer systems and peripherals, communications, document management, software, and services sectors of the global information technology industry.

Gartner, Inc. is a research and advisory firm that helps more than 10,500 clients leverage technology to achieve business success. Gartner's businesses consist of Research, Consulting, Measurement, Events and Executive Programs. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, and has 4,000 associates, including more than 1,000 research analysts and consultants, in more than 75 locations worldwide. Fiscal 2002 revenue totaled $907 million. For more information, visit www.gartner.com.

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