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Subject: Re: MobileLBSList: WAP/WML interoperable?
Date:  09/08/2000 10:36:12 AM
From:  Gould Carlson Michael

Mensaje citado por: Alistair Edwardes <aje@geo.ed.ac.uk>:

> Mike
> Just my two pence worth -

Ok, my 2 pesetas back at you...

>
> I'd be cautious about aggregating patterns of maturity for different
> technologies into a single model.

Whoops, sorry about my loose use of "model": no scientific integrity
implied by either our graphic or Gartner Group's original idea. Just a
quick, graphic way of comparing various entities (technologies in this
case).


>It seems that taking a view at such a
> high
> level limits what you can say about the influences on uptake for
individual
> technologies and hence the likelihood of a technology actually
reaching
> maturation. The use of terminology such as 'hype' also implies that
the
> sole
> factor involved in the success of a technology is it's coverage in the
> media, which sort of makes secondary the degree to which a technology
> satisfies particular market and industry resource needs at a given
point in
> time.

Hype is Gartner Groupīs term. I think itīs an appropriate term for a
key factor what drives IT. You have seen, I suspect, the Dilbert
comics? Lots of IT managers (no offense to anyone out there!) are like
Dilbertīs boss, driven by rumour (hype) and influenced by buzzwords.

> Wouldn't the shear investment in a technology be a better indicator?

Not necessarily better, but also very interesting to look at. Free
browsers may have a bigger impact on certain parts of IT than high-
investment items such as mainframe software.


> Maybe I'm just misunderstanding what hype means - how is hype
measured? It
> also seems you're in danger of comparing apples and pears.

Indeed we are. But then again, no need to directly compare the items on
the curve: Corba is very differnt from SVG, but we can still gleem
something from looking at their respective spots.

> Can you really
> compare horizontal and vertical technologies in the same analysis ?
For
> instance, isn't the uptake of GML and WML inter-related to the uptake
of
> XML?

Yes and no. Base XML might stabilise (probably will) while XML dialects
(say, football markup language) can be quite ephemeral.

> I'd suggest that there also seems to be a final stage missing from the
> model
> which is the point when a technology becomes 'legacy'.

Good point, probably best directed to www.gartner.com !

> Since the rate of
> the
> life cycle for different technologies will differ wildly according to
> changes in market needs. It seems that the argument you posit in your
> conclusion that
> "When considering a technology for GI interoperability, one should be
sure
> to carefully evaluate its maturity." would be equally true if basing
on a
> technology on a components that are too close to stagnation. So for
> instance even if WAP does ride the wave to the 'plateau of
productivity' it
> may still rapidly become a legacy standard with new innovations and
market
> needs.

Are equating legacy with stagnation?

In any case, I think most people interested in these IT guessing games
are more concerned about "getting out of the trough" than in what
happens awhen something stabilises.

Which GI interop-related technologies do you think will get to the
plateau??

>
> Cheers Alistair
>
> Alistair J Edwardes
> Department of Geography
> University of Edinburgh
> Drummond Street
> EDINBURGH EH8 9XP
> Scotland, U.K.
>


Cheers,
Mike Gould
preANVIL: www.anvil.eu.com


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